by Joel Sherman
Boston has so much talent — especially depth in pitching — that you see 95-plus wins. Nevertheless, the Red Sox have just enough uncertainty in nearly every realm, mainly because of health concerns, to fall out of the money in the AL East behind the Yankees and Rays.
Officials from the Big Three in the AL East will tell you privately they also believe that they are the Big Three in the majors. Of course, just two, at the most, can make the playoffs, and one AL East executive said there are legitimate scenarios in which the third-place team wins 95 games.
Each of the Big Three has immense strengths, notably the likelihood that the trio possesses the three best rotations in the Show.
Nevertheless, I do believe the Red Sox are most fluid. They have many key players who could flip one way or the other. I think the health of David Ortiz and John Smoltz can most influence the final record. If Ortiz has 550 productive plate appearances and Smoltz, indeed, returns on June 1 for four months of high-level pitching, then Boston probably will be the majors' best team.
Boston GM Theo Epstein works to build what he believes is a 95-win team and then looks for areas that can undermine his club and tries to create what he calls "redundancy." He particularly craves rotation depth because that is the most difficult area to fix during a season.
The perception inside and outside the organization is that Boston is overflowing with pitching options in the rotation and bullpen, but is not as deep in position players. Nevertheless, because of the bad economy, a team with money could cherry-pick an expensive player off of a financially troubled team. And the Red Sox actually have trimmed their payroll to about $126 million, sixth in the majors.
One scout who has seen a lot of the Red Sox this spring said, "One to 12, they will have the best pitching in baseball, so their offense just has to be OK."
So where are the main issues? I see three:
The old
Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming back from injury, and Jason Varitek is in a serious fade; and they represent one-third of Boston's everyday lineup.
The read this spring from scouts is that Ortiz (wrist, knees) looks healthy, but the ball is not exploding off of his bat like his vintage 2003-07. There is clearly an ongoing transition from an offense built around Ortiz/Ramirez to Dustin Pedroia/Kevin Youkilis. But Boston still needs Ortiz to be clutch and menacing.
Will the third baseman of the Red Sox (Lowell) or Yankees (Alex Rodriguez) recover better from a torn hip labrum? Lowell has flashed power this spring, but his range is down and he has gone from slow to even slower.
Internally, the Red Sox anticipate below-league-average production at catcher with Varitek, 37 in April and coming off of a meek .220 season. Boston is yet to feel it is worth giving up the organizational pitching depth for Arizona's Miguel Montero or Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But this area could be addressed in season.
The injured
Once the Yanks won the bidding for Boston 's No. 1 offseason target, Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox decided to ignore the vast pool of free agents whom they saw as possessing league-average certainty at too high a cost. Instead, they focused on injured players who, if healthy, definitely could impact their season. So for about $13 million guaranteed, they signed Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli.
Penny (shoulder) looks as if he will be the No. 5 starter. The Red Sox believe that, if necessary, Smoltz (shoulder) could be ready for the season. Instead, they have him working toward being strong for the closing four months. They also are working at restraining their enthusiasm at how good Smoltz has looked and felt, to date.
Saito (shoulder) has not had his best stuff from his Dodgers closing days, but his stuff has been good enough to join what the Red Sox think is their best set-up mix in years along with Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen in front of Jonathan Papelbon.
Baldelli (fatigue) still might not be able to play consecutive days, but the Red Sox believe he has retained enough sock and athleticism to provide a righty-hitting caddy to the oft-injured J.D. Drew.
The young
Reliever Daniel Bard was the talk of camp. One scout said, "Unbelievable. He was consistently 96-98 (mph), touches 99-100, and he has always done it with little effort. He raised his arm slot from his college days and it has made a huge difference with his command and his slider. He could replace Papelbon at some point."
The Red Sox expect him up in 2009, and saw so many positives from Clay Buchholz and even recent Japanese import Junichi Tazawa (he will be in the Double-A rotation) that they anticipate seeing them, as well. It is illustrative of a deep system that points Boston toward 95 wins.
In the AL East, will that be enough?
Officials from the Big Three in the AL East will tell you privately they also believe that they are the Big Three in the majors. Of course, just two, at the most, can make the playoffs, and one AL East executive said there are legitimate scenarios in which the third-place team wins 95 games.
Each of the Big Three has immense strengths, notably the likelihood that the trio possesses the three best rotations in the Show.
Nevertheless, I do believe the Red Sox are most fluid. They have many key players who could flip one way or the other. I think the health of David Ortiz and John Smoltz can most influence the final record. If Ortiz has 550 productive plate appearances and Smoltz, indeed, returns on June 1 for four months of high-level pitching, then Boston probably will be the majors' best team.
Boston GM Theo Epstein works to build what he believes is a 95-win team and then looks for areas that can undermine his club and tries to create what he calls "redundancy." He particularly craves rotation depth because that is the most difficult area to fix during a season.
The perception inside and outside the organization is that Boston is overflowing with pitching options in the rotation and bullpen, but is not as deep in position players. Nevertheless, because of the bad economy, a team with money could cherry-pick an expensive player off of a financially troubled team. And the Red Sox actually have trimmed their payroll to about $126 million, sixth in the majors.
One scout who has seen a lot of the Red Sox this spring said, "One to 12, they will have the best pitching in baseball, so their offense just has to be OK."
So where are the main issues? I see three:
The old
Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming back from injury, and Jason Varitek is in a serious fade; and they represent one-third of Boston's everyday lineup.
The read this spring from scouts is that Ortiz (wrist, knees) looks healthy, but the ball is not exploding off of his bat like his vintage 2003-07. There is clearly an ongoing transition from an offense built around Ortiz/Ramirez to Dustin Pedroia/Kevin Youkilis. But Boston still needs Ortiz to be clutch and menacing.
Will the third baseman of the Red Sox (Lowell) or Yankees (Alex Rodriguez) recover better from a torn hip labrum? Lowell has flashed power this spring, but his range is down and he has gone from slow to even slower.
Internally, the Red Sox anticipate below-league-average production at catcher with Varitek, 37 in April and coming off of a meek .220 season. Boston is yet to feel it is worth giving up the organizational pitching depth for Arizona's Miguel Montero or Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But this area could be addressed in season.
The injured
Once the Yanks won the bidding for Boston 's No. 1 offseason target, Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox decided to ignore the vast pool of free agents whom they saw as possessing league-average certainty at too high a cost. Instead, they focused on injured players who, if healthy, definitely could impact their season. So for about $13 million guaranteed, they signed Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli.
Penny (shoulder) looks as if he will be the No. 5 starter. The Red Sox believe that, if necessary, Smoltz (shoulder) could be ready for the season. Instead, they have him working toward being strong for the closing four months. They also are working at restraining their enthusiasm at how good Smoltz has looked and felt, to date.
Saito (shoulder) has not had his best stuff from his Dodgers closing days, but his stuff has been good enough to join what the Red Sox think is their best set-up mix in years along with Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen in front of Jonathan Papelbon.
Baldelli (fatigue) still might not be able to play consecutive days, but the Red Sox believe he has retained enough sock and athleticism to provide a righty-hitting caddy to the oft-injured J.D. Drew.
The young
Reliever Daniel Bard was the talk of camp. One scout said, "Unbelievable. He was consistently 96-98 (mph), touches 99-100, and he has always done it with little effort. He raised his arm slot from his college days and it has made a huge difference with his command and his slider. He could replace Papelbon at some point."
The Red Sox expect him up in 2009, and saw so many positives from Clay Buchholz and even recent Japanese import Junichi Tazawa (he will be in the Double-A rotation) that they anticipate seeing them, as well. It is illustrative of a deep system that points Boston toward 95 wins.
In the AL East, will that be enough?
Source: foxsports.com
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