Projected lineup
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF): Great source of speed and runs.
2. Dustin Pedroia (2B): Excellent skill set. Slightly overvalued in mocks so far.
3. David Ortiz (DH): If healhy, expect a bounce back. Still risky in the third or fourth round because we have seen players of his weight suffer a steep decline.
4. Kevin Youkilis (1B): Coming off a career season. Expect power to decline, but average and runs will be high.
5. Jason Bay (LF): Hits a lot of fly balls and adjusted well to Boston. In store for good season and 10-15 steals is a bonus.
6. J.D. Drew (RF): Skills are there; health never is.
7. Mike Lowell (3B): Hip injury caused numbers to decline.
8. Jason Varitek (C): Stay away!
9. Julio Lugo (SS): Health was an issue last season. Getting the chance to win the job and could be a good source of speed late in the draft.
Projected starting rotation
1. Josh Beckett: Should have had better numbers last season. Had some bad luck and will bounce back.
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Overvalued. Dice-K had a lot of good luck. His BABIP was low and his strand rate was high at 80%. He walked a lot of hitters, but pitched his way out of it. Difficult to hit, but poor command will catch up to him. Don't overpay for last season's 18-3, 2.90 ERA.
3. Jon Lester: Doesn't get enough strikeouts for where he gets drafted. Increased in innings pitched from 140 to 210 is slight concern.
4. Brad Penny: Injury risk and has been on decline for a few seasons.
5. Tim Wakefield: Decent AL-only pick.
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon: Absolute stud.
Setup
Takashi Saito
Manny Delcarmen
John Smoltz: Real wild card. He won't pitch until June. Health and age are the issue. He still can pitch and if you're in a deep league or have a reserve spot, he's not a bad option.
Others to watch
Jed Lowrie (SS)
Rocco Baldelli (OF)
Justin Masterson (RHP)
Clay Buchholz (RHP)
Position battle
SS: Lowrie, Lugo
Top prospects
Lars Anderson, 1B
Michael Bowden, RHP
Monday, March 2, 2009
Fantasy baseball: Boston Red Sox preview
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