2009 Prospect Mine: Boston Red Sox

by Marc Hulet

The Red Sox organization has a funny system… There are a number of top prospects in Double-A and Triple-A, as well as some very interesting names in short-season ball and the rookie league. The two A-ball teams, though, don’t have a whole lot of obvious talent.

AAA/AA
If it were not for the Red Sox’ strong starting-pitcher depth, Michael Bowden would probably be opening the year in the Major Leagues. The added time in Triple-A should not hurt him though, considering he spent just 40 innings there last year (as well as five in the Majors). The right-hander spent most of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 72 hits in 104.1 innings of work and posted rates of 2.07 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Bowden is not the type of pitcher who will put up a lot of flashy strikeout numbers but he knows how to pitch and should be a reliable No. 3 starter in the Majors. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The story of Daniel Bard may be one of the reasons why the Red Sox organization is no longer associated with High-A ball Lancaster, which is an extreme hitter’s park. Bard’s entire 2007 season was ruined after he was hit around while playing for the minor league club and posted a 10.17 ERA. Moved to the bullpen in 2008 and kept clear of Lancaster, he thrived. Bard, 23, began the year in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits in 28 innings of work with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9. The organization then jumped him over High-A ball and challenged him in Double-A, where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. Bard’s control still needs a lot of work and he gets away with throwing one pitch most of the time: a dominating fastball that can hit triple-digits. He also has a slider.

Lars Anderson is the club’s top prospect and he could be knocking on the big-league door by mid-2009. The former 18th-round pick out of high school was stolen by the Red Sox after he was viewed as a first- or second-round talent but fell due to signability concerns. The 21-year-old first baseman has had no trouble adjusting to pro ball with a career line of .304/.404/.480 in two years. Last season, he split the year between High-A and Double-A. At the higher of the two levels, Anderson hit .316/.436/.526 with five home runs in 133 at-bats. He had an impressive walk rate of 17.9 BB%, but struck out at a rate of 32.3 K%. He’ll likely open 2009 back in Double-A.

Josh Reddick’s results are catching up to his potential and athletic ability. The 22-year-old left fielder played at three levels in 2008 and topped out in Double-A, where he struggled by hitting just .214 in 117 at-bats. He spent most of the season in High-A ball where he hit .343/.375/.593 with 17 homers and nine stolen bases in 312 at-bats. In total, Reddick hit 23 homers and stole 14 bases. He’ll likely return to Double-A in 2009 where he’ll attempt to curb his aggressive nature at the plate, which leads to low walk totals. On the plus side, he keeps the strikeouts down because he makes good, consistent contact. Defensively, he has a canon for an arm, which makes right field his best position.

There is not a whole lot known about Junichi Tazawa and what he’ll bring to the table in 2009. The Japanese amateur import will likely start his pro career in Double-A after a solid showing in spring training. He allowed just five hits and one walk in nine innings, while striking out 10. His repertoire includes an 88-93 mph fastball, plus splitter, slider and curveball.

A+/A
The Red Sox system has produced a number of key middle infield prospects in recent years (Hanley Ramirez, anyone?) and Yamaico Navarro is one more name to remember. The 21-year-old Dominican had a breakthrough 2008 season and he split the year between two A-ball affiliates. His numbers in Lancaster were helped by the good hitting environment and he hit .348/.393/.508 with four home runs as well as rates of 6.2 BB% and 16.6 K% in 181 at-bats. Navarro is also a good fielder and should have no problem staying at shortstop.

SS/R
Stolmy Pimentel was considered advanced enough by the Sox to go directly to short-season ball in his North American debut in 2008. He had a solid season by allowing 51 hits in 63 innings of work. He also posted rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 8.71 K/9. Home runs were a bit of a problem and he allowed seven of them (1.00 HR/9). The right-hander has an 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up and developing curveball. Pimentel is just 19 years old.

Casey Kelly was a first-round draft pick in 2008 out of a Florida high school. The two-way player (SS and RHP) hit .173/.229/.255 in 98 rookie ball at-bats and .344 in 32 short-season at-bats in his debut. Kelly did not pitch last year but he will do both in 2009 as a compromise. Kelly prefers to play the field, while the organization likes his power arm. His repertoire includes an 87-91 mph fastball, curveball and developing change-up. He would likely move quicker through the system if he committed to playing just one position but his story will be an interesting one to read about in 2009.

Michael Almanzar, like Kelly, is the son of a former Major League Baseball player. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic to a huge contract and had a nice North American debut as a 17 year old. He hit .348/.414/.472 with one home runs in 89 rookie ball at-bats. Obviously too advanced for the league, Almanzar moved up to A-ball where he hit just .207/.238/.314 in 140 at-bats. The third baseman should return to A-ball in 2009 and will probably spend the entire season there.

Like Almanzar, Derrik Gibson had no problems hitting rookie-ball pitchers in 2008. He batted .309/.411/.394 with 14 steals in 94 at-bats. Moved up to short-season ball, the right-handed hitting shortstop hit just .086 in 35 at-bats. The most impressive part about the 19 year old is that he embraces the walk as a means of getting on base to utilize his plus-plus speed. He posted a walk rate of 13.0 BB% in rookie ball.

Ryan Westmoreland did not sign in time to make his pro debut during the regular season in 2008. He signed a seven-figure contract as a fifth-round draft pick out of high school, who had borderline first-round talent but a strong commitment to college. The 18-year-old prospect has an outside shot of beginning the year in A-ball.

About author:
Marc Hulet is a freelance writer and former newspaper editor from Ontario, Canada. He writes about Minor League Baseball for FanGraphs, Rotoworld and Baseball Analysts. Marc also covers the Toronto Blue Jays and Florida Marlins for Heater Magazine. He recently contributed to the 2009 Graphical Player baseball annual, available from ACTA Sports, Amazon.com, Indigo Books, and everywhere else books are sold.

Beware the Dugouts of March: The Boston Red Sox' 2009 Preview

Strut, friend. Strut the strut of a man who has no business strutting. Seriously, how do you have even a morsel of swagger you scary, scary man?

Hey guys, I'm Nick, the newest writer of the Dugout. Jon and B approached me and my love of socks and asked me if I could crank out a couple Spring Dugz, and of course I obliged. The Dugout has risen to the heights of super stardom over the past few years, and I'm truly honored. Hats off to two of the most talented guys on the web.

That being said, let's give this Dugout thing a try!

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The Greatness Continues: Previewing the 2009 Boston Red Sox

by Carter

The Red Sox slipped only a little in 2008, reaching game seven of the ALCS after entering the year as defending World Series Champions. But even if the Sox hold their ground again in 2009, others appear to have gained on them.

Though Boston returns virtually the entire roster from a team that has been the class of the AL over the last two years, it failed in its pursuit of No. 1 offseason target Mark Teixeira, who signed with the rival Yankees.

Nonetheless, Boston still looks like a contender in 2009, thanks largely to a solid nucleus and productive farm system that has provided good balance and depth throughout the organization.

Rotation

Assuming Josh Beckett remains in good health, Boston boasts a young and deep group of starting pitchers. Beckett, who was bothered by nagging injuries throughout last year, will be backed by Jon Lester, Diasuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield.

The Red Sox agreed to terms with righthanders Brad Penny and John Smoltz to add some veteran depth. Smoltz is battling back from shoulder surgery last summer; the Sox might not have his services until June.

The team still has prospects Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, among others, and righthander Justin Masterson could also start. Thanks largely to the emergence of Lester, Red Sox starters finished last season with a 4.02 ERA that was third-best in the AL. This remains the strength of the club.

Bullpen

Beyond closer Jonathan Papelbon, manager Terry Francona experienced some difficulty from his relievers during the first half of last season. That all changed when Masterson joined the group. In the final two months, with Masterson serving as a primary setup man for Papelbon, the Boston bullpen stabilized and pitched quite well.

During the offseason, the Sox further fortified the relief corps by adding right-handers Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez. They join the group that also incudes right-hander Manny Delcarman, as well as lefties Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez, giving Francona one of the deepest and most balanced bullpens in baseball. At least on paper.

Middle Infield

One year after winning the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Award, second baseman Dustin Pedroia claimed the AL MVP award. The Sox subsequently signed Pedroia to a six-year, $40.5 million contract with a club option that could keep him with the team through 2015.

For all the stability that Pedroia has given the Red Sox at second base, shortstop remains the major question. Julio Lugo has two years remaining on a four-year, $36 million contract. He essentially missed all of the second half of last year with an injury and was extremely unproductive.

Rookie Jed Lowrie did not make an error in 49 regular season games at shortstop, but he slumped badly at the plate late last year. Shortstop remains one of the few areas where the Sox can still make a significant upgrade.

Corners

The big question concerns the health of third baseman Mike Lowell, who underwent offseason hip surgery and has two years remaining on a three-year, $37.5 million deal. Lowell’s recovery appears to be coming along quite well, but the Sox seemed full prepared to trade him if the had been able to sign Teixeira. Had that happened, third base would’ve belonged to Kevin Youkilis, who has evolved into one of the best corner men in the game.

Despite moving from first to third last year, Youkilis was one of the most productive players in baseball, finishing third in the AL MVP balloting. If Lowell proves to be healthy, the Red Sox are in very good shape at first and third (offensively and defensively). Both Youkilis and Lowell own Gold Gloves.

Outfield

In the recent history of the Boston Red Sox, there is a clear delineation: Before Manny and after Manny. The Sox traded Manny Ramirez last July 31 in the deal that brought Jason Bay to Boston, a trade that had ripple effects throughout the team’s lineup.

Bay performed quite well during his two months in Boston, but the Sox nonetheless chased Teixeira during the winter. Because of the Crisp trade, too, there is no uncertainty with regard to the Boston outfield: Bay will be in left, Jacoby Ellsbury on center, and J.D. Drew in right.

The Sox signed Rocco Baldelli from Tampa Bay to add some depth, given Drew’s injury history and the inconsistency of Ellsbury, who batted .240 during a three-month stretch in the middle of last season. Defensively, this group can cover ground and is quite good.

Catching

For much of the past decade, the Red Sox have benefited from having one of the best two-way catchers in the game in the switch-hitting Jason Varitek. In 2008, however, Varitek’s offense slipped badly, and the Sox dropped to near the bottom of the league in offensive production from their catchers.

Varitek subsequently filed for free agency, leaving the position in a great state of uncertainty. Even though Varitek later re-signed with the Red Sox, the team also signed Josh Bard to a major league contract. The Red Sox explored a number of trade options, too, repeatedly inquiring with the Texas Rangers about Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Unproven minor leaguers Dusty Brown and George Kottaras also remain options.

Designated Hitter / Bench

Losing Ramirez was damaging enough to the Boston lineup, but a wrist injury to David Ortiz also hurt the 2008 club significantly. Ortiz never needed surgery and returned to the team for the final two months, but there is some concern in the Boston organization that Ortiz will never revisit the glory years of 2003-07, when he was one of the most feared hitter in baseball. That fact, too, inspired the pursuit of Teixiera. The Sox bolstered their bench in January by adding Rocco Baldelli and re-signing Mark Kotsay.

Management

Over the last several years, there have been few management teams as successful and shrewd as the Red Sox. As a big market team, Boston has the resources to spend with the big boys. Nonetheless, the Red Sox have emphasized the draft and player development since GM Theo Epstein took over, and they have built one of the best and most productive farm systems in the game.

Three years after temporarily resigning from his post, Epstein agreed to a contract extension last fall that will keep him in Boston for the foreseeable future. Overall, the Red Sox operation is in very good hands with a talented, young baseball operations staff and committed ownership, which seems to make Boston one of the most stable organizations in the game.

Final Analysis

Red Sox fans are optimistic after their team reached game seve of the ALCS, but here’s the question: If the Sox are so good, why was their management so concerned about improving the offense?

This team is still a contender, to be sure, and the Red Sox have enough talent, youth, experience, pitching and money to make a run at any team in baseball. Still, the lineup looked uncharacteristically soft at the end of last season, and no one should be surprised if the 2009 Sox have difficulty scoring runs.

Tampa Bay is now a legitimate threat and the Yankees have rebuilt their starting rotation, meaning the Red Sox will face improved pitching on a regular basis. If the lineup is indeed weaker, that could put an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff.

Carter’s Projected Red Sox Lineup:

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

2B Dustin Pedroia

DH David Ortiz

1B Kevin Youkilis

3B Mike Lowell

LF Jason Bay

RF J.D. Drew

SS Jed Lowrie

C Jason Varitek

Bench:

C Josh Bard

C Dusty Brown

IF Julio Lugo

UT Mark Kotsay

OF Rocco Baldelli

Rotation:

RH Josh Beckett

LH Jon Lester

RH Diasuke Matsuzaka

RH Tim Wakefield

RH Brad Penny/ RH John Smoltz

Bullpen:

RH Jonathan Papelbon (Closer)

RH Justin Masterson

LH Hideki Okajima

RH Ramon Ramirez

RH Manny Delcarmen

LH Javier Lopez

RH Takashi Saito

Boston Red Sox's 2009 Preview

By Bare Knucks

The key to Boston’s success in 2009 is their ability to stay healthy. After an offseason that saw them add onto what is already a stellar bullpen, one can only expect to see the Sox playing baseball in October again.

The Red Sox brought in Ramon Ramirez, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito, Wes Littleton, and Junichi Tazawa to add to what is one of the best rosters in all of baseball. Baldelli should help fill the void left with the departure of Coco Crisp, and Ramirez and Saito will add to what is arguably the best bullpen in the league.

The one "problem" the Red Sox have is too much pitching, which is never a bad thing. A stacked rotation will allow them to bring Tazawa along at a comfortable pace, as well as let young pitching prospects Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz gain some seasoning in the minors.

As long as J.D. Drew and David Ortiz are able to contribute at the level that they have the ability to, the Red Sox should be able to win upwards of 95-100 games.